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Helping You Achieve Better Health At Any Age |
Flu Shot Hype Fails to Deliver
Benefits
Some of the more recent flu shot claims I read, state that the flu vaccine is "60% effective" at preventing the flu. When you hear that, what do you think? I start thinking that sounds pretty good, because if 100 people are in a room, and 60 of them won't get the flu (and 40 will)...then I'd rather be part of that group of 60 flu-free people. On the surface, this statistic makes it seem like getting your flu shot will give you a 60% chance of not getting the flu. You're cutting your risk by 60%...or are you really? Let's take a closer look.
First of all, percentages are often misleading because they occur out of context--they leave out a critical number that you need to know. What you need to know about percentages is that they are relative to some quantity that is often unmentioned. For example, let's go with the claim that the flu shot is 60% effective in preventing the flu. That sounds good at first when you consider that you'd be improving your odds of not getting the flu by over half--which is probably better than not doing anything (which might give you a 50/50 chance of not getting the flu). Or so you might be lead to think...
If you knew that 100% of the population got the flu each year, and if the flu shot knocked your chances of getting the flu down to 60%, then 40 unvaccinated people out of 100 would would get the flu. That would mean a true decrease in your risk of getting the flu, by a measurable 60%. But how would that same 60% look if you knew that only 10 people out of 100 got the flu each year to begin with? Now you're looking at a 60% improvement for only 10% of the total population. That's still 60%, but it's a different number--a much lower number, than it would be if we were talking about 60% improvement for 100% of the people. In fact, 60% of 10% means 6 people out of 100...which is still accurately 60% of the group it is measuring, but not 60 out of 100 people, as we are initially led to believe. And if only 3% of the total population even gets the flu, and the vaccination helps you decrease your risk by 60% of 3% of the populus, that's smaller still. The point is: percentages start looking different in real terms, based on the total size of the data, or group, being monitored. Here's more on that...
Relatively speaking...percentages can mislead When talking percentages, you need to ask this question: what is the size of the control group (or cohort) against which this percentage is measured? In other words, how many people are likely to get the flu in a given year...and what does a 60% reduction in that number even mean for you? According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC):
Nearly a drop in the bucket What we see here is that a fair number of people get the flu each year in the USA (could be between 15-60 million people)--yet only 200,000 of those people visit the hospital for their symptoms. 200,000 people hospitalized means that less than 0.75% of the United States' population will end up in the hospital due to the flu. In fact, nearly as many people died in car accidents in 2007 alone (37,000) as have died from the flu in the past 30 years in the USA, if you take the higher average deaths mentioned by the CDC (40,000+). If you take the CDC's lower estimate of 3,000 total deaths in the USA from the flu, in the past 30 years...then you'd have nearly the same chance of dying from a lightning strike (which account for about 83 deaths per year in the USA x 30 years=2,490) as you would dying from the flu. So, your odds of getting the flu are slim, the odds of getting really sick from the flu even slimmer...and your chances of dying from the flu (for an otherwise healthy adult) are nearly non-existent. Keep in mind, these figures are coming from the CDC itself, so there might be a tendency to inflate these figures. Let's look at some other resources to cross-check our work.
Who really gets the flu? Practically nobody it turns out! When it comes to tracking flu patterns across large populations, there's plenty of data to give a clear picture of what's going on in the world when it comes to contracting the flu. There were over 30 studies published in the past 40+ years showing numbers much lower than the CDC numbers mentioned in the report above. According to these studies, practically no one gets the flu when you look at how few people it affect in the entire world population each and every year. They quote seasonal flu percentages as low as 3.9% of the total global population per year...the CDC's low estimate is 5% of the USA population...with their high estimate being 15% of the USA population. Basically, these studies show that the flu is simply a non-event when it comes to overall health impact across the globe. And those who do contract the flu, generally have very mild symptoms that resolve with rest, hydration and good nutrition. So why does the flu shot even matter to us? Let's continue by taking a closer look at these statistics.
One caveat...before I get a bunch of angry email...I am going to qualify this article as relating to seasonal flu strains...not pandemic flu strains that have historically accounted for huge death tolls. I'm talking about common flu strains that are selected for flu vaccines, which are not the same strains as the deadly 1918 flu, or the H5N1 strain, for example.
Faltering Flu Shots, Batman! Despite the annual flu-shot hype put on by health and media organizations, take a look at how the numbers really work out-- according to over 30 studies done over the past 40+ years:
Hocus pocus percentages The initial claim that the flu shot reduces your risk of getting the flu by 60 % is real, but it translates to helping only a whimpy 1.6 people per 100--if we use the numbers listed above. That's 1.6 people out of 100 who get the flu shot who might not get the flu, versus 2.7 people who might get the flu because they did not get vaccinated. We hear that everyone should be getting the flu shot, while in reality, only 3.9% of us will get the flu this year...hmmm... Ask yourself why the pharmaceutical companies, media and medical communities would bother making this flu shot, flu epidemic and dangerous flu scenario such a big part of our annual health alerts? What gives? Hint: the flu vaccines generate a lot of money for some folks. Follow the money and see what you think about the information you are getting flashed at you from nearly every clinic, pharmacy and public health office. It's good business, and it gets a lot of advertising every year.
And then there's this Another independent study released earlier this year found zero evidence that the flu shot reduced the rate of hospitalizations or slowed the spread of the flu virus among the population at large. In terms of saving lives, there's no support for the flu shot cutting down flu-related deaths. It turns out that most flu related deaths are a result of pneumonia, and not the flu virus (see source mentioned in previous paragraph). That same independent study also found that evidence in favor of the flu shot came from studies giving statistics that were rigged by vaccine makers. So, keep in mind, some of the bias inherent in these studies.
While the benefits of getting the flu shot may be nonexistent, the potential risks of getting one are very real. Health risks associated with flu shots
include:
If you are and adult under 65 and healthy, your chances of getting the flu are low to nearly non-existent. In fact, the statistics for the past 40+ years show that you can do nearly everything wrong in your life, and still not get the flu... ... yet getting the flu shot exposes you to health risks and side effects that outweigh the reasons for considering the flu shot in the first place.
Proactive vs. reactive medicine I can't tell you what to do. I can however, tell you what I do to improve my odds of staying flu-free all year. I believe these can work for you as well, if you decide to try them. I put my energy and focus on simple steps for prevening the flu--steps like frequent hand washing when I am around people with the "crud"...and keeping a healthy immune system. If you haven't read it yet, you can read about (and follow) preventative steps for colds and flu in my natural cold and flu remedies article. When it comes to immune boosting support, studies are finding that the flu seems to strike those with low levels of vitamin D in their systems. Take vitamin D3 supplements!
It is also worth noting that individuals who had the dreaded Avian flu (during the most recent outbreak in Asia), and survived, were also people who ate a lot of natural probiotic containing foods...like kimchee. You can also eat yogurt, kefir, natto, and naturally fermented sauerkraut for probiotic support. Reduce these culprits
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